By: Dr. Jose Garcia,
El Rito Media Political Analyst

Voters in New Mexico did not dispute the very soul of the American Creed this election year, as they did in the rest of the nation. And while the nation saw Kamala’s support from traditional Democratic constituents — women, blacks, labor unions, and Hispanics— dwindle enough to lose key states, New Mexico remained stubbornly in the Blue column.

No surprises. Gabe Ramos, a former moderate Democrat, turned Republican, flipped a senate seat he once held as a Democrat in a district including Silver City, Deming, and Lordsburg. And Rebecca Dow, a Republican who held House District 38 (Doña Ana and Sierra counties) for three terms, regained that seat held for two years by a moderate Democrat. That’s it. Democrats still own the Washington delegation, the Governor’s office, the Supreme Court, both chambers of the legislature, and all statewide elected offices.

Does this mean voters are happy with current leadership around the state? No, it just means the algorithms of gerrymandering effectively preserve Democratic power. The term “Democratic” here is an oxymoron. Gerrymandering is the major reason extremists in both parties have been able to thwart the will of the majority that should, in a functioning democracy, prevail. Wanna restore majority rule? Take redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and put it in the hands of a bipartisan group of ordinary citizens, say, the first seven people walking into the Walmart in Socorro on Monday morning, instructed to maximize the number of districts that are competitive between the two parties. Only then will the majority rule again, the most sacred tenet of the American Creed first articulated by Thomas Jefferson.

As they gather for another legislative session Democrats might try something they haven’t done in ages. Why not tackle New Mexico’s major problems instead of just gesturing at them: deteriorating education at all levels, a poor and worsening health care system, and an economic system that can’t seem to catch up to the twenty first century except in the area of oil production?

But why should Democrats, slurping Bull Ring liquor and gobbling up fat-cat campaign contributions tackle these difficult issues when voters keep re-electing them? A little tinkering under the hood of the electoral record reveals a trend that gerrymandering can’t reverse and should serve as a warning.

Background: Ethnicity has been a major factor in electoral politics in New Mexico from the beginning. When given a choice, Hispanics vote heavily for Hispanics, and Anglos vote heavily for Anglos. Hispanics were overwhelmingly Republican—the Party of Lincoln—when New Mexico became a state in 1912 and because of this, Republicans dominated legislative politics until the late 1930’s. Then, Hispanics migrated—without visas, across the no-wall partisan divide—into the Democratic Party, where they were welcomed, and have remained. Because a significant minority of Anglos since then have been attracted to the working-class, Rooseveltian, orientation of the Democratic Party, this has meant that normally Democrats control both senate and house, and often occupy the Governor’s mansion and most other statewide offices.

In recent years, however, after the Democratic Party embraced the charms of identity politics, privileging gays, feminists, immigrants, and the like, New Mexico Hispanics began to feel left out. This is similar to what happened to working classes in the Midwest after manufacturing moved to China. But, due to poor leadership, the New Mexico Republican Party, confined largely to the oil patch, failed to take advantage of this opportunity statewide at the operational level.

Back to the warning for Democrats:

This table shows what has already happened in the four most Hispanic counties in the state, with an average Hispanic population of more than 77%. Notice the decline in the Democratic vote for President from 2008-2024. In Mora, the drop in support is more than 30 points in 16 years. In Guadalupe the drop is 21; in San Miguel it is 17; in Rio Arriba 16: the higher the Hispanic proportion, the more drastic the drop, implying Anglos in these counties are not the cause of the decline. If these trends hold up in the other counties, the Democratic Hispanic vote will soon be too small to overcome the tendency of Anglos to favor the Republican Party. PTrump was right: New Mexico is ripe for the taking.

Dr. Jose Garcia is a former New Mexico Secretary of Higher Education, retired University PhD professor of political science, is active in state politics and a columnist for El Rito Media. He lives in Las Cruces and also frequently spends time in Santa Fe where he maintains a residence.